XRP outflows surge 300% as chart warns of 18% drop

XRP recorded a large increase in exchange outflows between May 15 and May 24 even as a 12‑hour head‑and‑shoulders chart pattern projects an 18% decline from a $1.18 neckline. The token traded near $1.35 on May 25.

On the 12‑hour chart the pattern shows a left shoulder in early March, a head in mid‑March and a right shoulder that completed in mid‑May. The neckline near $1.18 is the key technical level cited by analysts. A measured move from the neckline projects a fall to about $1.01 and a secondary target near $0.96. Technical watchers say a break below $1.34 followed by $1.28 would increase downside odds. A 12‑hour close under $1.18 would be taken as confirmation of the breakdown, while a reclaim above $1.55 and a 12‑hour close above $1.60 would be viewed as weakening and invalidating the pattern, respectively.

On‑chain exchange flow data show net outflows accelerating since mid‑May. Glassnode’s Exchange Net Position Change logged roughly -7,144,942 XRP on May 15 and about -29,372,431 XRP on May 24, an increase in outflows of more than 300% over nine days. Net outflows indicate that more XRP moved off exchanges into private wallets during that period.

Derivatives metrics moved in the same period. Reported open interest declined from about $1 billion to $914.19 million since May 15. Funding rates for long positions dropped from approximately 0.008% to 0.003%. These figures show lower open interest and lower funding rates in the derivatives market over the nine‑day span.

Price action over the week included a drop to $1.30 on May 23 followed by a rebound. Analysts cited immediate support levels at $1.34 and $1.28, with the $1.18 neckline identified as the confirmation level for the head‑and‑shoulders breakdown. On the upside, levels above $1.55 and a 12‑hour close above $1.60 are identified as points where the bearish pattern would lose traction.

The data cited are dated May 15 through May 25 and are derived from exchange flow and derivatives metrics. Market participants focused on short‑term price behavior, exchange balances and open interest as indicators to monitor while the pattern remains intact.