Wintermute: No Bitcoin bottom as ETF outflows drain funds

Market maker Wintermute warned on June 8 that there is no confirmed bottom for Bitcoin, attributing the recent decline mainly to U.S. institutional selling and sustained outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs. Bitcoin traded near $62,000 after a 14% weekly drop; the Nasdaq fell about 4.7% over the same period. Wintermute described a 32 BTC sale by Strategy as immaterial in size and noted later disclosures showed Strategy bought 1,550 BTC.

On-chain sentiment metrics showed a sharp fall in positive sentiment. Data from Santiment recorded Bitcoin’s positive sentiment score dropping from 814 on June 3 to 61 by early June, a decline of roughly 92%. Wintermute said the sentiment collapse framed the timing of the Strategy sale, even though the coins did not appear on exchange order books.

Exchange stablecoin reserves, a measure of dollar liquidity parked on trading platforms, fell after the market peak. CryptoQuant data show exchange stablecoin holdings peaked at $75.12 billion on November 12, 2025, and declined to $62.81 billion as of June 10, 2026, a drop of about 16%. The broader stablecoin supply tracked by DeFiLlama was $315.97 billion, down roughly $3.25 billion from a recent high near $323 billion.

Monthly flows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reversed sharply after mid-2025 inflows. SoSoValue monthly data show $6.02 billion of inflows in July 2025 and further inflows in September and October, followed by four straight months of outflows from November through February. November posted a record monthly outflow of $3.48 billion. May 2026 saw $2.43 billion of outflows, and the first ten days of June recorded $1.89 billion. ETF assets fell from about $147.73 billion to $77.58 billion over the outflow period.

Macroeconomic data in May also shifted market conditions. U.S. payrolls rose by 172,000, above consensus near 80,000. Services inflation reached its highest level since August 2022, and the 10-year Treasury yield rose to about 4.55% on the latest Friday, reflecting tighter financial conditions.

Long-term holder addresses continued to add coins, according to Glassnode data, but the pace of accumulation slowed compared with prior months. Wintermute identified an upcoming market event tied to a SpaceX listing scheduled for June 12 as a possible test for market structure.

Technical analysts outlined scenarios for both upside and deeper downside. Rekt Capital wrote that the year’s upside would be capped by a descending macro downtrend, placing a likely ceiling in the mid-$80,000s if that downtrend holds, and added: “This bear market should see a retracement of some 60% to 70%, which would mean we go sub-50 into the 40s.” Independent analysis placed a potential bottom near $44,627, a roughly 64% retracement from Bitcoin’s record peak. One longer-term resistance level cited by analysts sits near $93,000 for the next multi-year cycle.

Wintermute said its assessment is based on observable flows and on-chain indicators that show capital has not returned in force. The firm added that a sustained breakout above roughly $82,500 would change the technical picture, while continued ETF outflows and slower accumulation have accompanied recent price declines.