Wintermute: Ethereum ‘wrong asset’ as ETH/BTC hits 10-month low

Market maker Wintermute posted: ‘ETH -10.2%, continuing to underperform across spot and derivatives. ETH/BTC pressing 0.0275, funding softer, relative implied vol elevated. Wrong asset for this macro.’ The comments followed a 10.2% decline in Ether last week and the ETH/BTC ratio falling to 0.0275, its weakest reading since July 2025.

Spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds recorded $255 million in outflows last week, the largest weekly withdrawal since late January. Spot Bitcoin ETFs also showed net outflows over the same period.

On exchanges, ETH reserves on Binance increased from about 3.4 million to nearly 3.8 million during May. Total ether reserves across exchanges rose from roughly 14.5 million to about 14.94 million in the same timeframe. Higher balances on exchanges expand the amount of ETH available to sellers.

Wallet-level data showed mixed behavior. Santiment reported that very large wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million ETH raised their stakes from 6.15 million to 6.54 million ETH between May 1 and May 20, an accumulation of roughly 390,000 ETH. Mid-tier wallets holding 10,000 to 100,000 ETH trimmed positions from 27.77 million to 27.27 million over the same span.

Derivatives metrics reflected seller dominance. The weekly Taker Buy Sell Ratio on Binance fell to 0.91, the lowest reading since September 2023, a level that indicates more selling than buying. Analyst Darkfost noted that ETH has traded in a broad range between about $1,500 and $4,000 and fell roughly 9% over the past seven days, and warned that heavy short positioning can precede a short squeeze.

Market participants pointed to upcoming macroeconomic data and Federal Reserve commentary in the coming weeks as potential triggers that could prompt traders to adjust positions.