Wall Street sells Bitcoin as long-term holders accumulate

Glassnode’s Week Onchain report shows US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded sustained net outflows while long-term holders and small-to-mid sized wallets moved to net buying. About 10.83 million BTC are held at a loss, compared with 9.22 million BTC held in profit. Loss-making supply represents roughly 54% of the measured total, exceeding profitable supply by about 1.61 million BTC.

The report describes the recent shift in investor profitability as one of the sharpest deteriorations since the current bull market began. Glassnode notes that previous crossings of this threshold have coincided with capitulation among newer buyers, who are more likely to sell in drawdowns or exit near breakeven as prices recover.

On-chain indicators show long-term holders returning to net buying after a period of distribution. Glassnode’s Accumulation Trend Score rose across multiple wallet cohorts this week, with the strongest accumulation among wallets holding less than 1 BTC and entities holding 100 to 1,000 BTC. Wallets in the 1,000–10,000 BTC range also moved to net buying. The pace of accumulation is modest relative to prior buying waves.

The cash market has diverged. U.S.-traded spot Bitcoin ETFs continued to register net outflows, which Glassnode identifies as a source of selling pressure that has helped keep prices subdued even as some on-chain holders add exposure. Order books on major exchanges such as Coinbase and Binance shifted toward bids, with buyers placing liquidity below the current spot price.

Derivatives and options activity add further detail. Data from derivatives venues show leveraged traders holding a strong long bias at the highest level Glassnode has tracked. Options flow reflects greater demand for downside protection: the 14-day put-to-call volume ratio rose above 1.0, its highest reading in a year, and implied volatility has increased from earlier lows. Glassnode characterizes these readings as elevated fear but does not classify the market as a panic.

Glassnode outlines multiple potential scenarios. In a controlled-migration path, ETF outflows slow and patient holders continue accumulating while bid-heavy order books absorb underwater supply. A base-case scenario would see fragile bottoming and sideways price action as outflows and loss supply cap rallies. A bear scenario would involve a flush of crowded leveraged longs, continued outflows and a sharper capitulation. A failure scenario would occur if accumulation fades and ETF selling dominates.

Glassnode adds that Bitcoin could form a bottom without ETF inflows returning if outflows ease enough for on-chain accumulation to keep pace, and that a transfer of coins from newer, underwater holders to longer-term buyers has preceded past recoveries.