Trump Links Iran Deal to Expanded Abraham Accords

President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social Monday that Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Egypt, Turkey, Jordan and Bahrain ‘should be mandatory’ signatories to an expanded Abraham Accords framework as a condition of any final Iran settlement. U.S. stock markets were closed for Memorial Day.

Prediction-market traders priced a 39% chance that the U.S. would announce a new Iran agreement by May 31. The contract assessing whether Iran would hand over its highly enriched uranium carried an 11% probability. With U.S. equity markets closed, official market pricing of the diplomatic signals was delayed; cryptocurrency exchanges remained open and showed limited volatility.

U.S. officials say Iran’s supreme leader has approved the broad template of a draft deal in principle. Under the reported framework, Tehran would dispose of highly enriched uranium in exchange for staged lifting of the U.S. blockade and sanctions relief tied to verified Iranian performance.

A senior U.S. official described the sanctions approach as ‘no dust, no dollars,’ meaning funds would flow only after confirmed delivery of nuclear concessions. The draft also seeks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to free passage in coordination with Gulf partners.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed coordination with the White House on a memorandum of understanding covering the Strait and the broader Iran framework and reiterated that any agreement must remove enriched material from Iranian territory. Saudi Arabia has not publicly agreed to formalize ties with Israel, and an Iranian source denied Tehran had committed to handing over its uranium stockpile.

White House officials involved in talks include the vice president, investor Steve Witkoff and former senior adviser Jared Kushner, U.S. negotiators reported. They described sanctions relief as staged, with no fixed timeline or dollar figure agreed.

Analyst Kyle Doops noted, ‘Markets are increasingly trying to price whether this becomes a real geopolitical reset or just another temporary negotiation cycle.’ Traders are monitoring upcoming U.S. economic reports this week, including consumer confidence, PCE inflation and GDP, that could affect risk assets and oil.

The proposal would expand the bilateral nuclear negotiation framework to link regional normalization via the Abraham Accords with nuclear verification and phased sanctions relief. Key outstanding items include confirmations from Gulf states on simultaneous normalization and a firm Tehran commitment on enriched material.