Standard Chartered: Crypto winter ended by three of four signals

Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, placed the cycle low at $59,000 on June 5 and said the crypto winter has ended. He identified two factors that eased price pressure: a prospective G7-linked US‑Iran peace accord that reduced oil and US Treasury yield pressure on risk assets, and a structural halt to heavy selling from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds tied to the SpaceX initial listing process.

Leverage indicators show signs of capitulation. Average funding rates for perpetual futures were around negative 3.9%, meaning traders received payments to hold long positions. Open interest collapsed during the sell‑off and has only recently started to rise, a pattern that signals excess leverage has been removed from the market.

Sentiment measures also shifted. The Fear and Greed Index sat near 20, a reading the gauge categorizes as extreme fear. Low sentiment at that level has coincided with past market lows, according to the index methodology.

Institutional flows provided further data. Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, disclosed a purchase of 1,587 BTC for $100 million at an average price of $63,024 on June 15, following a 1,550 BTC buy the prior week and lifting its treasury to about 846,842 BTC. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded inflows after a $325 million outflow on June 5, with roughly $85.85 million entering on both June 12 and June 15.

Valuation remains the outlier among the four metrics. The Mayer Multiple, which divides current price by the 200‑day moving average, was about 0.85-below the neutral 1.0 threshold but above a 0.8 level seen at deeper bottoms. Bitcoin continued to trade below its 200‑day moving average and was about 46.9% below its all‑time high, a smaller drawdown than the 75–85% falls that ended prior crypto winters.

In a client note Kendrick wrote, “I think we have now seen the low in crypto asset prices for the cycle,” and added, “Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto spring.” He also attributed earlier selling pressure to ETF holders liquidating positions to raise cash for the SpaceX listing.

Standard Chartered said the final valuation metric would register as positive if Bitcoin reclaims its 200‑day moving average and ETF inflows persist. Until that technical line is recovered, the Mayer Multiple and the 200‑day comparison remain in levels traditionally associated with bear markets.