Stablecoins may top Visa and Mastercard by 2035

Chainalysis, a blockchain analytics firm, published a forecast on May 2, 2026, that projects adjusted stablecoin transaction volumes could surpass the combined volumes of Visa and Mastercard between 2031 and 2039. The report models multiple adoption scenarios and places adjusted stablecoin volume between $719 trillion (base case) and $1.5 quadrillion (highest-growth case) by 2035, up from $28 trillion in 2025.

The report uses an “adjusted” volume metric that removes bot activity and automated flows to focus on economic transactions such as payments and remittances. Chainalysis says adjusted volume provides a closer comparison to traditional payment-network data than raw on-chain totals, which include non-economic activity.

Chainalysis builds its forecast on three drivers: rapid recent growth in stablecoin usage, an anticipated transfer of wealth toward younger, crypto-native generations, and increased merchant acceptance of stablecoins as a payment method. The firm notes the timing for stablecoins to overtake card networks will depend on how those factors develop and on regulatory outcomes.

The report highlights two structural differences between stablecoins and card rails. Stablecoin transfers on public blockchains can finalize in minutes, while card transactions can take days to settle. For cross-border transfers, the firm cites an average cost of about 6.5% under the correspondent banking system and notes stablecoins can reduce fees by cutting out some intermediaries.

The forecast also points to network and corporate implications. Ethereum currently hosts more than half of stablecoins on-chain, which would mean higher stablecoin activity could translate to greater Ethereum network usage and fee revenue. Circle Internet Group, issuer of the USDC dollar-pegged stablecoin and a public company, earns yield on the cash and Treasury reserves backing USDC; larger USDC circulation would increase those reserve balances.

Legacy payment networks are testing responses. Visa and Mastercard are running pilots and investing in blockchain infrastructure to enable stablecoin settlement options. The report stresses that regulatory clarity will affect adoption; it cites recent U.S. legislative proposals, including the GENIUS Act, that aim to create a federal framework for stablecoins and related infrastructure.

The Chainalysis report also acknowledges its commercial interest in selling compliance monitoring and blockchain analytics, and it asks readers to consider that interest when evaluating the projections. The firm presents multiple scenarios rather than a single forecast and sets a wide range for when and how quickly stablecoin volumes could grow.