SPCX perps imply $2T; some venues face delisting risk

Hyperliquid’s SPCX-USDC perpetual, launched May 18 with a $150 reference price, briefly reached $216 and later traded near $203. At those levels, the synthetic contract implies a market value close to $2 trillion, about double SpaceX’s IPO target of $1.75 trillion. SpaceX’s S-1 shows a planned $75 billion raise, a roadshow beginning June 4, pricing set for June 11 and first Nasdaq trading expected on June 12.

Traders expect arbitrage at the open on June 12, selling expensive perpetual contracts and buying listed shares to narrow the price gap. Prior pre-IPO and grey-market trades have closed similar gaps in four to six hours. Current estimates from market participants place a likely convergence window near 100 to 250 basis points from the listed price, with most of the move concentrated in the first six trading hours.

Several crypto venues launched SPCX-linked products before the listing date, including Binance, OKX, Bitget, BingX, Hyperliquid and BTCC. These synthetic pre-IPO offerings do not have an established precedent under U.S. securities law. Regulators have not opened a formal inquiry. Industry observers say smaller platforms with lighter compliance teams or on-chain architectures face greater exposure to subpoenas or enforcement actions. At least one venue restricting or delisting SPCX within 90 days is considered a baseline scenario.

SpaceX’s S-1 also disclosed a bitcoin holding of 18,712 BTC acquired at about $661 million cost. At a bitcoin price near $75,690, that position is worth roughly $1.4 billion, larger than Tesla’s reported holding of about 11,509 BTC. The bitcoin disclosure appeared alongside revenue details for Starlink.

A trader wrote, “Every SPCX buyer gets passive Bitcoin exposure whether they want it or not.”

Private valuations for Anthropic have exceeded $1 trillion, and reports around OpenAI’s prospective IPO have shown figures near $852 billion. Analysts expect other companies preparing IPOs may consider disclosing crypto holdings in their filings.

What to watch next: SpaceX’s roadshow starts June 4, pricing is set for June 11 and Nasdaq trading is scheduled for June 12. The behavior of SPCX perpetuals and any regulatory actions during the first hours of trading will affect venues that offered SPCX products before the IPO.