SpaceX IPO rally raises $3T valuation, splits traders

SpaceX shares rose sharply after the company priced its initial public offering at $135 on June 12 and raised about $75 billion, the largest IPO on record. The stock traded near $214 and a prediction market estimated an after‑hours valuation of roughly $3 trillion based on reported 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion.

The listing placed SpaceX among the most valuable U.S. companies immediately. Since the IPO the stock has traded about 56% above its offer price. The rapid gains and a very small public float have split market participants between warnings of a sharp pullback and arguments that limited supply could keep prices elevated.

Analyst Ted Pillows framed a bearish scenario by comparing the pattern to early Tesla trading, writing that the sequence resembles an initial large jump followed by a steep decline. Another market participant pointed to a valuation near 90 times projected 2026 revenue and highlighted lock‑up expirations in August as a potential source of selling pressure when more shares can be sold.

Investment adviser Thierry Borgeat noted that price moves depend on the balance of buyers and sellers and argued the current shortage of available shares can limit downward moves. Demand broadened quickly after the IPO, with exchange‑traded funds holding the stock rising from a handful to roughly 120 in the days after the listing, increasing access for institutional and retail buyers while many insiders remain locked up.

Historical comparisons to Tesla are mixed. Tesla closed its first trading day about 40.5% above its offer price and saw wide early volatility in the months that followed; that record shows early swings can occur without a single decisive collapse.

Market participants said the main variables to watch are continuing demand from new buyers and the supply change expected when lock‑up periods begin to expire in August. Those factors will determine whether current trading reflects a sustained valuation or a sizable correction.