SpaceX IPO Pushes Tesla Merger Into Wall Street Mainstream

Wolfe Research flagged a growing Wall Street thesis that a public SpaceX could lead to a merger with Tesla, citing a June 9 client note as SpaceX prepared to price the largest IPO in history.

SpaceX planned to sell 555.6 million shares at $135 each, a deal intended to raise $75 billion and value the company at $1.75 trillion. The company set Nasdaq trading to begin June 12 under the ticker SPCX. The offering was all-primary and Elon Musk agreed to a 366-day lockup on his shares.

Order books were heavily oversubscribed ahead of pricing, with reported aggregate demand near $150 billion and some institutional bids reaching into the billions. Banks moved to close books ahead of the June 11 pricing.

Wolfe Research listed three forces behind the merger thesis. A publicly traded SpaceX would create liquid stock that Musk could use as currency in an all-stock deal. A transaction structured as described could raise Musk’s voting control above 50%. Analysts and some investors also point to possible operational links between Tesla’s vehicle data and SpaceX’s compute infrastructure along with a larger combined capital base.

Earlier in the year SpaceX absorbed xAI, a move market participants cited as a valuation signal for the rocket company. SpaceX’s S-1 filing disclosed a corporate holding of 18,712 bitcoin, bought in 2021 for about $661 million and valued at $1.29 billion as of March 31. That bitcoin position exceeds Tesla’s reported corporate holding.

Crypto markets showed early activity pricing SpaceX ahead of the IPO, with pre-IPO perpetual futures listed on exchanges and an ETF issuer planning a 2x daily leveraged SpaceX product to launch on the listing date.

Wolfe Research also described obstacles that could delay any merger. A deal would likely require Tesla to pay a significant premium. Other SpaceX shareholders could object to terms, and regulatory issues tied to Tesla’s operations in China would add complexity. The firm estimates a deal is unlikely to close before mid-2027.

Financial results add further caution. SpaceX reported $18.67 billion in revenue for 2025 and a $4.94 billion net loss. Morningstar’s fair-value estimate for SpaceX was below the IPO valuation, and some analysts said the public float might represent a smaller portion of the headline valuation.

Emmanuel Rosner of Wolfe Research wrote that talk of a merger may provide short-term support for Tesla shares but that Tesla’s product milestones-deliveries, commercialization of the robotaxi program and progress on Optimus robots-will determine longer-term performance.

SpaceX’s offering priced on June 11. Early SPCX trading will show whether the market assigns a measurable merger premium to Tesla or treats the idea as speculative narrative.