SpaceX IPO could value Alphabet stake at $87–107B

SpaceX’s initial public offering is set to price Thursday at a fixed $135 per share and begin trading Friday on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX. The offering targets a $75 billion raise at a $1.75 trillion valuation. Reported order demand approached $150 billion before books closed.

At that valuation, Alphabet’s stake-acquired for about $900 million in 2015 and reported at roughly 6.11% as of late 2025-would be worth between about $87.5 billion and $107 billion. A February transaction that issued new SpaceX shares to an affiliated AI firm likely reduced Alphabet’s ownership toward 5%, narrowing the value range.

SpaceX reserved 5% of the float for a direct share program whose buyers can sell immediately. Elon Musk agreed to a 366-day lockup on his roughly 40% holding. Under typical lockup schedules, 20% of a large holder’s position becomes tradable on the second trading day after the IPO, which would free roughly $18 billion to $21 billion tied to Alphabet’s stake if the company sold then. Most of the remaining shares would remain restricted for months.

Alphabet and SpaceX have large commercial contracts. Alphabet agreed to pay about $920 million per month for AI computing capacity through June 2029, a run rate near $11–12 billion a year. SpaceX also has other multi-billion monthly agreements that contribute to recurring revenue and are part of how investors value the company.

Some research firms value SpaceX well below the $1.75 trillion listing price; one recent estimate placed the company near $780 billion. A significant day-one sale into a market questioning the valuation could push SPCX lower and reduce the dollars Alphabet could realize. A strong opening price would provide a public market reference for the holding.

Alphabet guided 2026 capital expenditures as high as $190 billion while reporting operating cash flow of about $174 billion through March. The company raised about $84.75 billion in equity in early June, including a $10 billion private placement and an at-the-market program. Selling part of the SpaceX stake would generate cash without issuing new Alphabet shares; the timing and size of any sale would affect market impact.

Alphabet’s shares slid roughly 12.7% from a May 18 peak during the IPO build-up but remain up year to date. Analyst price targets for Alphabet vary, reflecting different views on how a public SpaceX valuation will affect the company’s sum-of-the-parts valuation.

The dollars Alphabet could realize will depend on SPCX’s initial trading level, investor demand, and the timing and size of any stake sales.