Smart money exits XRP; whales sell as price nears $1.36

The Smart Money Index fell below its signal line on May 17 as large holders reduced positions and exchange inflows increased. XRP was trading roughly 1% above the $1.36 lower edge of a three-month rising channel.

The index estimates the activity of informed investors. The last time it crossed under its signal line, in late April, XRP fell about 7% over several days.

Short-term technical momentum weakened after the May 17 signal. The 20-day exponential moving average touched the 50-day exponential moving average and was positioned to close below it, a configuration that has not occurred in months. Price pulled back from a May 14 peak to the channel’s lower boundary, a level that has contained rallies and pullbacks since Feb. 6.

On-chain data show different behavior across holder sizes. Wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP increased their share of supply from 16.81% on April 19 to a peak of 17.63% on May 12. Since May 12 that cohort trimmed its holdings to 17.37%.

Exchange flow metrics have been net positive for almost a month, indicating more coins moving onto exchanges than off. The May 17 inflow measured 9.14 million XRP, the smallest single-day inflow since April 24, but still a positive net inflow.

XRP is down about 24% year to date and about 3.5% over the past month. The price sits near the lower boundary of the rising channel, which leaves that trend line at risk of a daily close below $1.36.

A daily close beneath $1.36 would be recorded as a breakdown of the rising channel and would open the next horizontal support near $1.27, roughly a 7% decline from current levels. For upside momentum, XRP would need to reclaim $1.48, with $1.56 as the next level where buying could face resistance.

Chart patterns of rising channels sometimes reverse briefly before the prior trend resumes. A confirmed breakdown would require a clean daily close below $1.36 combined with continued positive exchange net position readings, which would indicate ongoing net flows of coins onto exchanges. If exchange flows turn negative and on-chain demand rises, the lower edge could see renewed buying interest.