Rising dollar tests Bitcoin as ETF flows alter correlation

The US Dollar Index is rising toward 101 after forming a double bottom on the daily chart. The index sits near 99.124 while Bitcoin trades around $80,605. Spot‑Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.97 billion of inflows in April.

On technical charts, DXY moved above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at 98.548 and formed a W pattern across April and May. The next upside target is about 101.075, just above a supply band at 100.393 that matches March and April highs. Momentum indicators show the relative strength index climbing toward 60 and the MACD histogram turning positive. A daily close below the 0.382 Fibonacci level at 97.408 would invalidate the breakout.

Historical data from 2011 onward show a long-term inverse relationship between the dollar and Bitcoin. Major Bitcoin expansion phases in 2013, 2017 and 2020 coincided with DXY weakness below 90. Dollar rallies in 2014, 2018 and 2022 coincided with steep Bitcoin drawdowns.

Correlation between DXY and Bitcoin has been mixed in 2026. Daily readings moved near positive one in late January and early February when both assets fell, and again in mid‑March and early April during simultaneous recoveries. The correlation swung negative from mid‑April through May as DXY rallied while Bitcoin consolidated near $80,000.

Institutional flows are one factor market participants point to. Spot‑Bitcoin ETF inflows of $1.97 billion in April were the largest monthly total so far this year. Investment firms such as BlackRock attracted steady capital into ETF products, and those flows can provide a baseline bid that is less tied to short‑term dollar swings.

The coming weeks will test how the two assets move. Traders will watch whether DXY clears the 100.393 supply zone and moves toward 101.075 and how Bitcoin reacts around $80,600. Bitcoin was up about 0.97% over 24 hours and roughly 8.7% over the past 30 days at the time of the report.

Market participants tracking both assets are monitoring ETF flow data and DXY technical levels to see if the shifting pattern in 2026 represents a persistent change or a temporary divergence. The DXY invalidation threshold on a daily close remains 97.408.