Raoul Pal: Bitcoin Outpaced Nasdaq Since 2022 Low

Raoul Pal, a former Goldman Sachs sales executive and founder of Real Vision and Global Macro Investor, wrote that Bitcoin has risen about 318% from the liquidity-cycle low after the FTX collapse in November 2022, when the coin traded near $15,700. He compared that gain with a roughly 187% rise in the Nasdaq 100 to about 30,660.

Pal posted the comparison on X and in his macro research to dispute claims that capital has flowed out of crypto into technology stocks. He linked recent price moves to liquidity cycles and described the current weakness in crypto as a mid-cycle correction. He wrote that his models point to a higher liquidity target once financial conditions ease. “The ‘Crypto is dead, its all going to tech stocks’ narrative is alluring but overall this is the actual results from the liquidity cycle low in 2022…”

U.S. equities opened lower on Wednesday amid concerns that the Federal Reserve could remain hawkish and stalled talks between Iran and the U.S. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 edged down while the Dow fell about 0.5% after ADP reported private payrolls added 122,000 jobs in May, a figure above expectations. Early trading featured sharp, rapid losses in equity market value.

Bitcoin traded near $65,800 in the session, down about 2.7% over 24 hours and well below its record high of $126,080. The token’s market capitalization remained above $1.3 trillion. Pal acknowledged the recent pullback and called the scale of cumulative gains surprising, noting an estimated prior 50% sell-off in Bitcoin and about an 80% sell-off in other crypto assets.

Critics argued Pal selected an unusually low starting point and pointed to structural changes, including renewed investor interest in AI-related stocks, that may have altered capital flows. Market observers noted the correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq has tightened over the past year, which can make Bitcoin more sensitive to macro developments such as rate expectations and geopolitical risk.

Bitcoin plunged in late 2022 after the collapse of the crypto firm FTX, a period many market participants treated as a liquidity-cycle low. Since then, crypto markets have experienced a prolonged recovery punctuated by sharp corrections. Pal previously ran European hedge-fund sales at Goldman Sachs before launching Global Macro Investor and Real Vision.