Polymarket bettor nets $9.24M as World Cup wagers surge

A single Polymarket account recorded a $9.24 million one-day gain after correctly calling four match outcomes, underscoring large wagers and payouts on crypto prediction platforms during the 2026 World Cup. Traders on Polymarket and Kalshi have posted both multi-million-dollar wins and steep losses as the tournament proceeds.

Polymarket operates crypto-based yes-or-no markets on real-world events; Kalshi runs a contract-style prediction model. Since the tournament began, the outright winner market on Polymarket has seen more than $2.5 billion in volume. On-chain trackers and public leaderboards are following high-volume wallets in near real time as traders place and adjust large positions.

On-chain posts show the trader staked $7.03 million on Iran not beating New Zealand. Iran drew 2-2, returning $7.34 million on that single wager, and the bettor’s four correct calls produced the $9.24 million one-day gain. Other accounts also recorded large wins: one converted about $427,000 into roughly $4.7 million after a 0-0 draw between Spain and Cape Verde, a result that paid at about 9% odds. Another account reported $764,000 in winnings over four days after winning seven of eight bets.

High-value losses have also been visible on public ledgers. One trader placed about $1.2 million on Argentina not to beat Algeria and lost when Argentina won 3-0, with Lionel Messi scoring a hat-trick. On Kalshi, a separate user lost $391,536 on the same Argentina-Algeria outcome. A different Kalshi wager of $373,407 on Algeria not to win returned $416,184, illustrating varying payouts across platforms and contracts.

Market probabilities for the tournament title have shifted as results arrived. Polymarket’s leader boards showed France at about an 18% chance to win, Spain at roughly 13% and Argentina near 11%. Kalshi displayed a similar ordering, with France at about 18.7%, Spain at 13.3% and Portugal around 10.9%. After Argentina’s opening match, Polymarket data indicated Argentina’s chance rose to about 11% and that at least one trader’s position on the market was valued at approximately $1.21 million.

Traders can profit by predicting match outcomes correctly or by buying and selling positions as probabilities change. The visible on-chain activity and public leaderboards have made large trades and wallet movements observable to other users. Upcoming group-stage fixtures will generate further adjustments to odds and new high-stakes positions on single matches and the tournament winner markets.