Polymarket bettor turns $427K into $4.7M after Spain upset

On June 15, 2026, a Polymarket account using the handle ‘fishalive’ converted roughly $427,952 into $4,702,769.23 after Spain failed to beat Cape Verde in a Group H match at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

The trader purchased “No” shares on Polymarket against a Spain win at odds that implied about a 9% chance. When the market settled following Cape Verde’s draw, the position paid out $4,702,769.23.

Spain entered the match as the heavy favorite, with Polymarket pricing a Spain victory above 90%. Cape Verde, making its World Cup debut, secured at least one point with the result.

Polymarket’s sports account posted that an account had placed roughly $400,000 on Spain not to win at 9% odds and that the wager cashed for $4,702,769.23. The platform recorded the initial stake at about $427,952. The real identity of ‘fishalive’ is not publicly known.

The trade attracted attention within the prediction market community. Some individual bettors who backed Spain lost sums approaching $1 million. Polymarket has recorded heavy trading volume during the tournament, with billions traded across World Cup markets.

Spain remains in Group H with Uruguay and Saudi Arabia and can still advance from the group stage. Cape Verde’s result awarded the nation a point in its first World Cup match.