Polymarket $3.3B World Cup surge highlights longshot trading

Polymarket’s World Cup contracts have recorded $3.3 billion in trading, with roughly $1.6 billion of that volume placed on teams currently priced at 1% or less. With the tournament in the Round of 32, France and Argentina sit atop the market’s favorites.

Polymarket prices France at about a 23% chance to win and Argentina at 21%. Spain is listed at 11%, England at 10% and Brazil at 6%. In the market for teams to reach the final, France shows an implied 39% chance and Argentina 38%, with Spain at 23%.

Winner-market volume concentrates on the leading teams. Argentina has drawn about $81 million in winner-market trades and France about $77 million. Portugal, Spain and England have attracted roughly $76 million, $68 million and $61 million respectively.

Despite that concentration, roughly two-thirds of winner-market trading has gone to teams priced at 1% or less. About $1.6 billion has traded on those longshots. Historical volume on specific outsiders includes Ivory Coast near $101 million, Mexico about $97 million, Egypt roughly $90 million, Cape Verde around $87 million and Morocco about $82 million.

The divergence between trading volume and current probabilities reflects market mechanics. Many contracts were traded earlier in the tournament, some positions remain open, and others stem from speculative bets, fan purchases, hedges or multi-leg strategies. Prediction-market contracts remain live until settlement or until users close positions, so capital can stay tied to earlier tickets after odds shift.

A simple example shows concentration among favorites: a basket covering France, Argentina, Spain, England and Portugal costs about $0.72 combined at current prices. If any one of those five wins, that position would pay $1.

Polymarket’s World Cup volume exceeds prediction-market trading tied to this year’s Super Bowl, which totaled about $1.4 billion. Other platforms, including Kalshi, are also reporting heavy activity around match results and tournament outcomes.

Institutional estimates and venture-capital data show broader growth. One brokerage projects World Cup-related trading could exceed $10 billion before the tournament ends on July 19. Data from a venture capital firm indicate non-sports trading across Kalshi and Polymarket reached about $3.6 billion, weekly ecosystem volumes hit roughly $14.5 billion and open interest stood near $1.6 billion for multiple weeks.

Federal regulators have opened an investigation into Polymarket. The platform faced enforcement action in 2022 that limited U.S. operations and resumed limited service to American users last year. Consumer protection groups and some state authorities have urged closer oversight of prediction-market platforms.

Prediction markets continue to trade outcomes beyond sports, including geopolitical events, macroeconomic data and elections. The World Cup’s month-long schedule has produced extended activity and a record of how traders entered and exited positions over the tournament.