Plan C: PMI Above 50 Coincides With Bitcoin Rally

Bitcoin researcher Plan C argues that the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index rising above 50 marks the start of a Bitcoin bull market. He referenced stronger April factory readings and historical links between PMI moves and past BTC rallies.

Two U.S. factory gauges showed expansion in April. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing PMI printed 52.7%, the fourth straight month above 50, and its New Orders sub-index rose to 54.1%. S&P Global’s U.S. Manufacturing PMI was revised to 54.5%, the strongest reading since May 2022, with new orders growing at the fastest pace in four years and output expanding at the highest rate since April 2022. Readings above 50 indicate sector expansion.

Plan C circulated a chart tracing PMI changes and Bitcoin price action back to 2009 and cited a January 2026 statistical study that reported a strong correlation between PMI readings and BTC returns. He argued traders were focused on the four-year halving cycle rather than manufacturing demand, liquidity and credit conditions, and he wrote that Bitcoin has never completed a full bull market while the PMI stayed below 50.

Other market participants pointed to weaker exchange-traded fund demand and fading institutional flows. Standard Chartered warned Bitcoin could revisit roughly $50,000 before a sustained recovery, citing those softer flows.

There are historical periods when PMI and Bitcoin moved in opposite directions. The ISM rose in 2014 while Bitcoin declined, and the PMI contracted in 2015 while Bitcoin advanced. From 2023 through 2025 the PMI remained below 50 for almost two years while Bitcoin rose about 700%.

S&P Global’s report also flagged an 11th straight monthly decline in exports, the first fall in factory employment in nine months and a ten-month high in input cost inflation, factors that could narrow the Federal Reserve’s path to rate cuts. Some analysts treat the PMI primarily as a forward indicator of central bank policy rather than a direct trigger for cryptocurrency prices.

Bitcoin traded between about $78,000 and $80,000 while the debate continued. Market participants will watch the next ISM manufacturing release on June 1 as an early test of the PMI-driven bull market thesis.