Nvidia trails chip rally as institutional flows turn negative

Nvidia shares have risen roughly 15% so far in 2026 while the broader chip sector has climbed more sharply. Nvidia’s Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator moved below zero, indicating net institutional outflows.

Over the past 50 trading days Nvidia and the Semiconductor Index moved in opposite directions on about half of sessions. That frequency has increased since April and is near levels last seen early in the 2022 bull market. Broadcom has gained about 20% year-to-date and AMD has climbed by a larger amount, widening the performance gap with Nvidia.

Options activity shows growing interest in downside protection. On Nvidia’s most recent earnings day the put-call volume ratio was about 0.46 and the open-interest ratio about 0.79. Those readings have shifted to roughly 0.45 for volume and 0.85 for open interest, with the open-interest tilt indicating more outstanding put positions relative to calls.

Perpetual futures on the Hyperliquid platform present different positioning. Tokenized NVDA perpetual contracts show net long positions for smart-money and public-figure cohorts, while the largest whale cohort is slightly net short. On the same platform, positioning in Broadcom and AMD skews heavier to the short side across some trader groups.

Nvidia’s short-term volatility is elevated. Its 30-day annualized volatility is near 33%, higher than most large-cap names and second only to Tesla in the referenced sample. Higher volatility can attract traders who seek price swings and use shorter-term instruments.

The CMF reading under zero points to institutional selling pressure. Over the past five trading days Nvidia’s price has been roughly flat to up about 2%, while the CMF registered outflows during that period. AMD’s CMF is strongly positive over the same span. Nvidia’s CMF is testing a rising trendline that began in early January; a sustained move below that line would mark deeper outflows, while a return above would indicate resumed inflows.

Market participants note a mix of signals across time frames: options show increased put interest, perpetual futures display pockets of long and short positioning depending on cohort, and the CMF captures net institutional selling. Broadcom’s June 3 earnings released capital and attention toward rivals during the same period.