Nvidia Nears $5.7T on China Demand, Record High

Nvidia shares climbed to a record above $236, gaining 3.7% in one session and posting several consecutive advances ahead of the company’s upcoming earnings. The rally pushed Nvidia’s market capitalization near $5.7 trillion.

Reports indicate Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance and JD.com are preparing orders for Nvidia H200 processors, subject to regulatory approvals. Jensen Huang visited China as part of a U.S. delegation while those potential purchases were being discussed.

U.S. export restrictions for advanced AI chips remain in effect and some Chinese approvals have slowed. Market participants appear to be pricing in at least a partial reopening of that customer pipeline as negotiations continue.

Nvidia is also benefiting from broader global demand for AI infrastructure. High-performance GPUs used for model training, inference and AI servers remain in tight supply. The semiconductor sector has risen alongside Nvidia, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index reached record levels. Year to date, NVDA is up more than 25%, and over the past 12 months the stock has gained over 70%.

On technical measures, the stock is trading above its 20-day moving average near $210, its 50-day near $193 and its 200-day near $186. Immediate support is around the Ichimoku Kijun level at about $210. Momentum indicators are mixed: the relative strength index is near 64–65, the commodity channel index is above 130, and the Stochastic RSI has produced a short-term sell signal. The MACD and ADX continue to reflect a bullish structure. Analysts expect the stock to trade roughly between $215 and $235 in the coming sessions; forecasts note a sustained move above $235 would open the path to new highs, while a break below the $210–$215 band would weaken the short-term uptrend.

Model-based forecasts from CoinCodex project consolidation in the near term with May 2026 prices between about $204 and $224, followed by moderate pullbacks in June and July with averages near $195–$201. Projections show a recovery in September and October toward the $220 range, November targets near $260 and potential December highs around $280. Those projections are dependent on continued AI-driven spending and developments around China demand and regulatory access.

Investors will be watching Nvidia’s upcoming earnings for guidance on sales and supply, and for any updates on export approvals and order flow from China. Regulatory clarity and corporate guidance are expected to influence near-term trading.