Markets favor US after Balogun cleared for Belgium match

Polymarket contracts showed the United States with about a 39% chance of winning in regulation time, Belgium at about 35% and a draw near 29%, with more than $6 million wagered on the market. A player market priced Balogun at roughly 90% to appear and about 40% to score; Romelu Lukaku was near 36% to score. A US-regulated exchange placed US odds to reach the quarterfinals at about 52% versus Belgium at 48%.

FIFA’s disciplinary committee suspended enforcement of Balogun’s one-match ban under Article 27, placing the striker on one year of probation. The decision removed the immediate suspension that would have kept him out of Monday’s round-of-16 match and leaves the original sanction subject to reinstatement if he commits a similar offense during the probation period.

Balogun received a red card in the United States’ win over Bosnia and Herzegovina after a video review concluded he made dangerous contact with defender Tarik Muharemovic. The sending off forced the US to finish that match with 10 men and initially appeared to threaten Balogun’s availability against Belgium.

Traders adjusted positions quickly after FIFA’s ruling. Before the suspension of the ban, Polymarket had priced Belgium slightly ahead, giving the Belgian side about a 38% chance of a regulation win as of 12:30 a.m. on July 5. Balogun’s availability altered the calculation; he has scored three goals in three starts at the tournament and is one of the US attacking options.

The US camp welcomed the clearance. President Trump wrote on Truth Social, “Thank you to FIFA for doing what was right, and reversing a great injustice!” Coach Mauricio Pochettino called the original red card harsh and noted the team had already been penalized by playing the remainder of the Bosnia match with 10 men.

European soccer bodies criticized FIFA’s handling of the case. The Royal Belgian Football Association described the decision as astonishing and said it conflicts with rules that make a one-match penalty automatic after a red card. UEFA criticized the ruling as undermining confidence in consistent enforcement of tournament rules. Former FIFA president Sepp Blatter questioned political involvement, asking, “Quo vadis, FIFA?”

For bettors and prediction-market traders, the immediate effect was a change in lineup and scoring probability assessments. Balogun’s clearance provided a reason to reassess match odds, and markets moved to give the United States a narrow advantage going into the round-of-16 fixture.