Israelis Back Iran War; Most Americans Oppose Strikes

Two recent surveys show a sharp difference between public opinion in Israel and the United States and market data trace broad price moves since the conflict began.

The Israel Democracy Institute surveyed 601 Jewish and 150 Arab respondents from April 26 to 30. Overall, 59% of respondents said ending the Iran war under current conditions would be incompatible with Israel’s security interests. About two-thirds of Jewish respondents expressed that view, while nearly half of Arab respondents said ending the war now would be compatible with national security. Among Jewish respondents, the share saying an end now would harm security was largest in the political center at 70%, 65% on the right and just over 50% on the left.

The same survey recorded a rise in the share of Israelis who believe the United States has greater influence over Israel’s security agenda. That share increased from 44% to 51% over six months, and among Jewish respondents it rose from 45% to 56.5%.

A separate Generation Lab survey of U.S. adults found 77% of respondents called recent U.S. strikes on Iran the wrong decision. Opposition was highest among younger adults, with 80% of respondents aged 18–24 and 73% of those aged 30–34 saying the strikes were wrong. The poll also measured views of President Trump’s handling of the situation: 55% of respondents expressed strong disapproval of his approach to U.S. military action against Iran, with the highest level of disapproval concentrated in the 18–24 age group.

Markets have moved since the conflict began on February 28. Price data compiled since the start of hostilities show jet fuel up about 80%, sulfur 68%, West Texas Intermediate crude 58%, Brent crude 57%, European natural gas 52%, diesel and gasoline each about 50%, and fertilizer prices 26% higher. Palm oil rose 14%, coal 13%, iron ore 9% and rice 9%. The S&P 500 is roughly 5% higher over the same period while the VIX volatility index is down about 8%.

Rising energy and fertilizer prices have been reflected in consumer and input costs. Food and beverage inflation reached 7.9% in March. Urea fertilizer prices have roughly doubled since February. The aviation sector has faced higher jet fuel costs that have led to some flight cancellations and increased ticket prices. Industrial metals such as aluminum have shown strain from higher input costs.

The Israel Democracy Institute fielded its survey April 26–30. The Generation Lab poll and the price series were released in early May and cover developments since the conflict began on February 28.