Investors hold $45M net short on SpaceX perpetuals

Traders on Hyperliquid perpetuals hold a combined $45.3 million net short position on SpaceX, with smart-money accounts net short $20.8 million and whale traders net short $23.7 million, according to on-chain analytics. Open interest on the perpetuals is about $304 million and the market shows a skew toward short bets.

The positions were built as SpaceX shares climbed after the June 12 IPO, which priced at $135 and raised roughly $75 billion. The stock jumped further after a $60 billion all-stock acquisition of AI coding firm Anysphere via Cursor, and SpaceX’s market capitalization briefly exceeded $2.7 trillion. Since that peak, the share price has cooled to about $202.

Options volume shows a put-to-call ratio near 0.84, indicating more calls traded than puts. Dealers who sell calls generally hedge by buying the underlying shares. Implied volatility in near-term contracts is approximately 170% into the two-day expiry.

In the cash market, Chaikin Money Flow reads +0.14. The stock is trading above its intraday volume-weighted average price (VWAP).

Perpetuals are leveraged products; leveraged long positions face liquidation if prices fall. Buyers of options are exposed only to the premium paid.

Technically, analysts have identified $201 as near-term Fibonacci support; a break below that level could open $193 and then $179. The current options expiry this week is an immediate event for volatility, and August lock-up expirations are expected to bring additional supply to the market.

SpaceX’s short-term price moves show a correlation of about 0.12 with Tesla and roughly -0.15 with space-industry peers. Analyst Ted Pillows projects a potential 60%–70% run-up followed by roughly a 50% decline as one scenario investors are preparing for.

Traders report the two near-term catalysts to watch are the options expiries this week and the August lock-up expirations; positions and price swings remain sensitive to hedge flows and forced liquidations around those dates.