IMF Warning, US Services Inflation Lift Oil Call Bets
Brent crude near $95 as investors bought call options after the IMF flagged prices about 3% above its April baseline and US ISM services prices rose to 71.3; BNO put-call ratio fell to 0.06.
As of June 4, Brent crude traded near $95 a barrel while options traders increased purchases of call contracts even after a roughly 13% drop in the past month. The United States Brent Oil Fund’s put-call ratio fell to 0.06 on volume and to 0.11 on open interest.
The International Monetary Fund said global oil prices are about 3% higher than the level used in its April growth forecast. The IMF estimated Iran-related disruptions removed about 14 million barrels per day of production and projected global oil reserves could fall to around 7.5 billion barrels in July, down from roughly 8 billion before the conflict. The fund identified the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the route for about one-fifth of global oil shipments, as a key factor for future flows.
US inflation data also changed market dynamics. The ISM Services Prices index rose to 71.3 in May from 70.7 in April, its highest reading since August 2022. Survey respondents named diesel, gasoline and oil among the most reported input-cost increases. The index has risen about 8.3 points since February; such moves have historically preceded changes in consumer prices by roughly three months.
Options activity contrasted with positioning in futures markets. The CFTC’s Commitments of Traders report for the week to May 26 showed non-commercial speculative funds holding about 58,110 long contracts and 90,924 short, a net short position. During that week those funds trimmed about 1,703 long contracts and added roughly 6,145 shorts. Commercial traders added about 4,319 long contracts and reduced shorts by about 907.
Perpetual-futures funding rates for Brent paired with USDC were near neutral. The 30-day Hyperliquid funding rate stood at about -0.0013%, indicating neither a clear long nor short bias among that cohort of traders.
Venezuelan crude exports rose about 61% year over year to near 1.25 million barrels per day in May, the highest level in seven years, with shipments reported to the United States, India and Europe. Increased supply from Venezuela adds to available barrels on global markets.
Options buyers and commercial hedgers increased exposure to higher prices while speculative futures traders remained net short and Venezuelan exports expanded. Near-term price drivers include developments at the Strait of Hormuz, upcoming US consumer inflation readings, and changes in production from sanctioned producers.
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