Hormuz toll could raise global oil prices

The United States and Iran reached an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with transits resuming immediately and a 60-day toll-free window. Iran will begin charging “service fees” for commercial ships after the waiver expires. Oil prices fell to two-month lows on the news, with Brent near $83 a barrel and U.S. crude under $80.

The Strait of Hormuz carried roughly one-fifth of global oil flows before the conflict, moving about 7.6 billion barrels a year. A per-barrel fee of $0.50, $1 or $2 would translate into approximately $3.8 billion, $7.6 billion or $15.2 billion annually. Informal charges near $1 per barrel were reported during the fighting, and some individual voyages faced substantially higher fees.

Market data show the immediate supply squeeze has eased but not disappeared. The spread between the front-month and second Brent contracts narrowed from about $10.27 in April to roughly $0.67 in mid-June, indicating the front contract still trades with a premium. CFTC Commitments of Traders data to June 9 recorded a reduction in short positions of about 9,300 contracts. Options activity on the United States Brent Oil Fund showed call buying outpacing puts, with the put-call ratio dropping from about 0.08 to 0.06 as the toll news broke.

Analysts laid out price scenarios linked to how fees are applied. From a reopening near $80 a barrel, a smooth, predictable fee could add roughly $2 to $6 to Brent, while a disorderly implementation that disrupts traffic again could add $10 or more. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects Brent averaging about $105 in June and July.

U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks are at a 43-year low, reducing the available emergency buffer to offset any tightening. Some energy company executives warned that continued inventory declines could push physical Brent to substantially higher levels.

The next weekly CFTC report will be the first to fully capture trading positions after the toll announcement and is expected to show whether the recent bullish tilt persists. Market pricing in the months ahead will reflect the actual fee regime after the 60-day waiver and any disruption that follows.