Gold Targets $4,850 After Channel Breakout Before U.S. Jobs

Gold confirmed a breakout from a descending channel and reached $4,772 on May 7. The next technical target cited by analysts is $4,850. Market participants are watching daily closes above $4,720 ahead of Friday’s U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls.

On the daily chart, the metal fell from an all-time high of $5,598 in late January and corrected to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement near $4,376. Price then bounced toward the 0.382 Fibonacci around $4,843 and formed a higher low above the 0.5 Fibonacci at $4,609. The daily relative strength index sits near neutral and volatility expanded during the breakout before easing.

Shorter timeframes show the technical change. A descending parallel channel that capped rallies since April 17 broke on May 1. After the breakout, gold retested the channel midline near $4,540 and buyers defended that level on May 5, allowing a push to $4,772 on May 7. The most recent four-hour candle posted a 1.13% rejection at $4,772 and a pullback to about $4,692.

On the hourly chart, prior resistance near $4,716 moved into support. Analyst Karcebe wrote: “Gold has reached the $4730 target I expected after breaking the descending channel…Closings above $4720 will start another upward wave. The first target above is around $4785, the main target is $4850.” Karcebe also flagged Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls as the next major catalyst and said a stronger jobs print could lift the dollar and push gold prices higher, while a weaker print could push prices toward $4,850.

Key technical levels cited by analysts include the daily 0.382 Fibonacci at about $4,843 and the 0.236 Fibonacci near $5,131 if that level is cleared. A drop below the 0.618 Fibonacci near $4,376 would expose the 0.786 level around $4,044. In the near term, a move under $4,670 would shift focus back to the channel midline around $4,540.

Traders expect larger price swings around the Nonfarm Payrolls release, which often moves the dollar and risk-sensitive assets. Key intraday levels to monitor are $4,720 on the upside and $4,670 on the downside.