Glassnode: Long-term Bitcoin holders far from cycle bottom

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode reported that long-term Bitcoin holders have not reached the levels of unrealized loss seen at prior cycle lows, even as BTC trades near $67,002. Three metrics highlighted by the firm point to more downside before a historical cycle bottom would be matched.

Glassnode said long-term holder Net Unrealized Profit and Loss, or LTH NUPL, sits around 0.25. That places NUPL at the upper edge of the band that contained previous cycle floors. The firm noted that prior cycle lows in 2012, 2015, 2019 and 2022 occurred when NUPL moved deeper into the historical bottom band.

Total supply held by long-term holders reached a record near 15 million BTC, Glassnode reported. The firm described a recurring pattern in which long-term holders absorb coins from shorter-term sellers during the mid-phase of a downtrend and then distribute that supply over the following uptrend months or years. Glassnode said the current high in LTH supply matches that historical pattern.

Glassnode also reported long-term holder relative unrealized loss at about 15.5%, meaning roughly 15 cents of every dollar held by long-term investors is unrealized loss. The firm wrote on X: “At $69.5k, LTH Relative Unrealized Loss sits at 15.5%. For every dollar long-term holders’ bags are worth today, they are carrying roughly 15 cents in unrealized loss. At cyclical extremes, that number has exceeded 50 cents on the dollar. Stress is present, but the long-term holder base remains far from the levels of pain that have historically marked cycle lows.”

Glassnode outlined possible price scenarios tied to on-chain stress. A drawdown to about $56,000 would push long-term holder relative unrealized loss into the 30–40% range, aligning with early phases of past capitulations. A deeper drop toward roughly $44,000 could follow if LTH NUPL falls into the red zone observed at previous cycle troughs. Glassnode noted that reclaiming $105,000 would return long-term holders to broad profit and would invalidate the current bearish scenario.

Bitcoin has weakened recently, trading down about 11.6% over the past week and about 36.3% over the past year. Glassnode’s on-chain data show long-term holder metrics have not yet reached the ranges that have historically coincided with cycle bottoms.