Fed minutes signal higher-for-longer rates; Bitcoin cools

Federal Reserve minutes from the April 28–29 meeting showed many policymakers wanted to remove the Fed’s easing bias and signaled that additional rate hikes could become necessary. The committee left the target range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, and the minutes took a more hawkish tone than markets had expected, weighing on Bitcoin’s recent rally.

Officials cited rising energy prices, new tariffs, higher shipping costs and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as factors that could keep inflation elevated. Fed staff estimated headline PCE inflation rose to 3.5% in March from 2.8% in February, driven largely by higher oil prices and related supply disruptions.

The meeting produced four dissents, the most since 1992. Stephen Miran preferred a 25-basis-point rate cut, saying policy risked becoming overly restrictive as labor-market pressures build. Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan opposed retaining language that suggested future easing could occur. Officials also warned that persistent price pressures could cause inflation expectations to become “de-anchored.”

Market participants noted the minutes could push Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar higher while putting pressure on equities and cryptocurrencies. Daniela Hathorn, a senior market analyst, observed that markets were looking for confirmation on whether the Fed is more concerned about inflation persistence than slowing growth. She said that “crypto has behaved increasingly like a high-beta macro asset,” and that hawkish language could prompt consolidation after Bitcoin’s rally.

Traders said Bitcoin’s near-term path will depend on liquidity conditions and movements in the bond market. Hathorn identified a $76,000–$74,800 zone as critical support and listed $82,000 as key resistance if market participants read the minutes more dovishly.

Investors now turn to upcoming inflation reports and the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting for further signs on policy direction. Markets are also watching the planned transition from Jerome Powell to Kevin Warsh, assessing whether new leadership could keep policy restrictive into 2026.