Fed Hold, Mega-Cap AI Earnings May Move Bitcoin

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave its benchmark rate at a 3.50%–3.75% target range as traders watch Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference and earnings from Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta after the market close. Bitcoin is trading near short-term technical support as market participants monitor both policy language and big-tech guidance.

The Federal Open Market Committee is forecast to pause for a third consecutive meeting. The FOMC will not publish a new dot plot or updated Summary of Economic Projections, leaving the wording of the statement and Powell’s tone to carry more weight than usual. Recent Fed minutes have shifted market pricing for rate cuts toward mid-2026.

Correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 has risen over recent years, measured at about 0.52 in 2025 and spiking to roughly 0.75 in January 2026, increasing crypto sensitivity to large-cap tech moves. Market participants expect Powell’s assessment of inflation and growth risks to influence risk appetite across equities and crypto.

After the close, the four mega-cap technology companies will report first-quarter results and provide forward guidance. Together they are guiding toward roughly $600 billion in capital spending for 2026, concentrated on AI data centers, chips and power infrastructure. Investors will track cloud revenue at Microsoft’s Azure, Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud to assess whether faster revenue growth can justify the planned spending.

Kyle Rodda, senior market analyst at Capital.com, commented on the event window: “The market could swing heavily as the likes of Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft report and investors dial into CAPEX plans, free cash flow projections, and the pay-offs from AI.” Rodda noted prior episodes when big-tech earnings and capex concerns produced broad multi-asset deleveraging.

Tokens and smaller crypto projects that pitch machine-learning use cases have trended with sentiment in the broader AI sector and may be sensitive to capex outlooks or cloud-growth surprises. Some market participants say a steady Fed alongside strong AI guidance and clear cloud revenue beats could lift risk appetite and allow Bitcoin to recover. Others warn that hawkish language from Powell or disappointing capex commentary could prompt rapid selling across equities and crypto.

The Fed decision and Powell’s press conference are scheduled for today; the mega-cap reports follow after the market close. How Powell frames inflation and growth and how corporate leaders justify their AI investments are expected to shape near-term price action across assets.