Ethereum Nears First-Ever Three-Quarter Slump

Ethereum is on track to record three consecutive quarterly declines for the first time in its history, falling 28.28% in Q4 2025, 29.26% in Q1 2026 and 18.4% so far this quarter. About two weeks remain before the quarter closes, leaving time for the quarter to finish in the green.

The price slump has pushed ETH toward multi-year lows and market sentiment into deep fear. An analyst observed that the token appears on course for its second-worst first half of the year since 2022.

Broader risk markets strengthened after reports of a US-Iran peace agreement. Over the past 24 hours the total crypto market capitalization rose about 2%, and ETH gained roughly 2.6% to trade above $1,700 during that period.

Historical patterns show prior recoveries after two consecutive down quarters. After two negative quarters in 2022, Ethereum rose 24% the following quarter. Smaller recoveries followed similar streaks in 2019 and 2020. Any sustained quarterly recovery would likely need to extend into Q3, which has had an average return of 7.44% historically.

Technical indicators present mixed signals. Analyst Ardi warned that “worst isn’t over yet,” noting recent touches of support zones and RSI trends that resemble earlier cycle lows. Ardi pointed out that weekly RSI has not yet spent multiple weeks below 30 as it did in prior cycles, and that the ETH/BTC pair remains in a pronounced downtrend.

On-chain data shows more than 39.5 million ETH staked across over 887,000 validators. Staked ETH is not available for spot trading while locked in validators.

With roughly two weeks until the quarter ends, traders and analysts will watch price action, momentum indicators and staking flows for signs of whether the quarter closes red or green.