Ethereum Near $2,330 as 8-Hour Reversal Forms; Inflows Down 85%

Ethereum traded near $2,330 mid-week as an 8-hour inverse head-and-shoulders pattern approached confirmation, with the right-shoulder floor at $2,309 identified as the key price to hold for the pattern to remain valid.

On the 8-hour chart the structure shows a left shoulder, a deeper head and a higher right shoulder forming since mid-April. Price made a higher low between mid‑April and early May while the relative strength index (RSI) registered a lower low over the same period, a configuration known as hidden bullish divergence.

On-chain metrics provide additional data. Exchange net position change rose to 78,930 ETH on May 3 and declined to about 11,504 ETH by May 6, an 85% reduction in net inflows. The HODL waves metric for the 6- to 12-month holding cohort increased from 18.12% of supply on April 22 to 21.49% by May 6, indicating a larger share of circulating ETH is held by mid-term addresses.

Technical price levels on the 8-hour chart are defined. Immediate resistance sits at $2,358, followed by $2,388 (0.382 Fibonacci) and $2,412 (0.5 Fibonacci). The neckline of the inverse head-and-shoulders registers between $2,423 and $2,436 (0.5 to 0.618 Fibonacci). A clean break above the neckline would project roughly 9% upside to about $2,642, near the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. On the downside, failure to reclaim $2,358 and a decisive break below $2,309 would invalidate the right shoulder and open a path toward the head’s low near $2,218.

The reversal pattern has been forming since mid-April, while the exchange inflow spike and its subsequent decline occurred in the first week of May. The next 8-hour candle closing above $2,309 will determine whether the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern remains intact.