Draft US-Iran framework could reopen Strait of Hormuz; oil falls

Iranian state television on Wednesday outlined a six-point draft framework that would lift the U.S. naval blockade and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to pre-conflict commercial traffic within 30 days. Iranian outlets called the document an initial, unofficial framework and said no steps would follow without verification from Washington.

The report described a 60-day negotiation window and listed measures that include a withdrawal of U.S. military forces from the vicinity of Iran and the lifting of the U.S. Navy blockade. It said Tehran would restore commercial transits to pre-war levels inside 30 days, Iran and Oman would jointly manage shipping routes, military vessels would be excluded from the arrangement, and a final deal reached within 60 days would be converted into a binding U.N. Security Council resolution.

Markets moved quickly after the broadcast. WTI futures traded near $93 earlier in the session before falling about 2.7% within 30 minutes of the report, pushing U.S. crude futures below $89 a barrel. Before the restrictions, the Strait of Hormuz handled roughly 20 million barrels per day and about 125 to 140 commercial transits a day; transit volume dropped substantially during the blockade.

U.S. officials and Iranian authorities described the framework in different terms. Washington has emphasized free passage without transit fees and has sought firm, verifiable guarantees of safe transit. Iranian reporting emphasized joint management with Oman and Iran’s role in overseeing shipping routes.

Analysts described the draft as a phased approach that addresses the strait and immediate ceasefire issues first, with other items such as nuclear talks, sanctions relief and regional proxy conflicts to be negotiated later. Market participants priced a limited reopening scenario rather than a comprehensive settlement.

Investor commentary expressed caution about continued volatility in oil markets while terms are unverified. One market commentator noted that oil prices tend to fall less on tentative peace signals and rise more on renewed conflict concerns.

So far the commitments exist only in the state television report and have not been confirmed by U.S. officials. The next 60 days will determine whether negotiators convert the draft framework into a binding agreement and whether commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returns to pre-conflict levels.