Delphi: Up to 94% of airdrop wallets sell within 90 days

Delphi Digital tracked 3.7 million wallets over five years and found 78% to 94% of recipient wallets across six major tokens sold most of their airdropped allocations within 90 days. The study covered airdrops on four blockchains and included Uniswap (UNI), Arbitrum (ARB), Jupiter (JUP) and Pudgy Penguins (PENGU).

The report measured recipient behavior at multiple points and found exit rates rose over time rather than stabilizing. Dump rates at day 90 were 4 to 11 percentage points higher than commonly cited 30-day figures, indicating sales continued after the first month.

Delphi identified four factors that could worsen outcomes for airdrops. The cost of creating fake or “sybil” wallets has fallen as automated tools make farming cheaper and detection less reliable. Future issuers, including tokenized treasuries and regulated DeFi platforms, are likely to avoid sending tokens to anonymous wallets. The economics of acquisition can be poor: Delphi estimated Arbitrum effectively distributed about $1.16 billion to users who left within a month. High-profile successes are limited relative to the full dataset.

The report highlighted projects using mechanics intended to limit sell pressure. Hyperliquid (HYPE) offset token sales with buybacks funded by more than $1 billion in revenue. Jito (JTO) kept its eligible recipient group small to limit farming. MegaETH locked 53% of its supply behind performance targets. Pendle directs roughly 80% of revenue into buybacks for stakers. The firm wrote: “Token economics are starting to require real protocol performance. Token distribution is moving from handouts to performance.”

Independent monitoring showed similar patterns. A trader who tracked 30 airdrops received since December 2024 found only one of those tokens still trading above its launch price at the time of the check, and several had fallen substantially. Delphi’s broader dataset across millions of wallets and five years showed many recipients sold airdropped tokens quickly.

The report says projects that use airdrops to build communities or reward early users may need stronger economic incentives, tighter eligibility criteria, or mechanisms such as vesting, buybacks or performance-based locks to retain holders beyond the initial months after distribution.