Dell Rally Tops 138% After Trump Endorsement, Pentagon Win

Dell Technologies shares rose 138% from an early-March base after a May 8 endorsement by former President Trump, a $9.7 billion Pentagon contract announced May 27 and a Q1 FY27 earnings beat reported May 28. By the May 28 close the stock traded near $317.05, with an intraday high above $326.

Dell reported Q1 FY27 revenue of $43.8 billion versus a consensus estimate of $34.81 billion, and adjusted earnings per share of $4.86 versus an estimate of $2.88. Adjusted EPS increased 214% year over year. Management reported AI-optimized server revenue of $16.1 billion, up 757% year over year, and recorded $24.4 billion in AI orders during the quarter.

Management raised its FY27 AI server revenue forecast to $60 billion from $50 billion and set full-year revenue guidance at $165 billion to $169 billion, above the $143.9 billion analyst expectation.

On May 8 former President Trump urged investors to ‘go out and buy a Dell.’ Nineteen days later, on May 27, Dell was awarded a $9.7 billion contract by the U.S. Department of Defense.

Several market indicators changed around the rally. Chaikin Money Flow, which measures institutional inflows and outflows, fell from about 0.40 in early May to roughly 0.24 by late May, producing a double-top shape on the indicator even as price moved higher. Trading volume on the May 28 earnings session was 26.61 million shares, while the overall volume profile during the rally trended lower compared with the early-March surge. The May 28 session closed as a doji, with the session close near the opening price.

Options activity showed a rise in put activity. The daily put-call volume ratio increased from about 0.34 on May 20 to about 0.80 on May 28. Open interest in puts slightly outnumbered calls, with the open interest ratio near 1.29 on the earnings date.

Technical levels on the price chart include near-term resistance around $326. Immediate supports are at $305, which corresponds to the 0.618 retracement of the recent swing, and a support cluster near $290. A deeper retracement to $275 corresponds to the 0.382 level. The pattern under discussion loses structural integrity below $256 and would be invalidated by a close under $227. A 1.618 Fibonacci extension projects near $431. Following the quarter, one firm raised its price target to $435 and kept a buy rating, while another firm maintained a hold rating.

Market participants will monitor whether the $305 level holds in subsequent sessions. The next price action will be assessed against the noted support and resistance levels.