CryptoQuant: Bitcoin Mirrors 2022 After 200-Day Rejection

CryptoQuant warned that Bitcoin’s recent rally and rejection at the 200-day moving average echo the pattern that preceded the March 2022 bear market. The firm reported BTC dropped below $77,000 after reversing from resistance near $82,400.

Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, outlined the comparison in a May 20 report. He noted Bitcoin rallied about 37% from April lows before encountering resistance, a structure the firm compared with a roughly 43% bounce and rejection in March 2022.

Several market indicators supported the firm’s caution. Speculative demand in perpetual futures slowed around $82,000. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs moved from net buyers to net sellers in recent days, reducing a source of institutional buying pressure. The Coinbase Bitcoin price premium has been negative since late April, indicating weaker domestic spot demand. Unrealized profit margins reached about 17.7% on May 5, the highest level since June 2025.

CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index has fallen back into deeply bearish readings, and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index stood at 29, inside the fear zone.

The firm identified price levels that could act as support. Primary on-chain support sits near $70,000, aligned with the Traders’ On-Chain Realized Price. The 200-day moving average is near $61,400, and the 300-day moving average is around $54,500; CryptoQuant said those levels could serve as longer-term floors if selling intensifies.

Market analysts outlined two possible near-term paths. One scenario assumes Bitcoin holds the $77,000 zone and regains momentum toward mid-range resistance before another pullback occurs. A second scenario projects BTC loses the $77,000 support and moves lower to test new cycle lows before a durable recovery emerges; that outcome is described by some analysts as more likely.

Moreno wrote, “In bear markets, the 200-day MA has consistently acted as the boundary between relief rally territory and trend resumption… the strongest technical confirmation that the bear market remains structurally intact.”

Traders and investors are monitoring ETF flows, derivatives positioning and on-chain demand metrics, along with price action around the 200- and 300-day moving averages.