Cowen: Bitcoin Rally Likely to Peak Within Weeks

Benjamin Cowen, founder of the Into the Cryptoverse channel, warned in a recent video that Bitcoin’s recent price advance will likely peak within weeks and that the broader bear market may resume. He said a new low could arrive around October if past cycle patterns repeat.

Cowen based his outlook on patterns he identified in 2014, 2018 and 2019, when Bitcoin climbed above key moving averages during mid‑bear rallies before resuming downward trends. He noted the 200‑day moving average acted as resistance in those episodes and argued the present price action is following a similar pattern. “I think this will likely yield a rally that finds a top within the next few weeks and then we come back down to those levels,” he said.

He also cited time between cycle lows as a signal. Recent cycles saw roughly 140 to 174 days between lows. By Cowen’s count the market is on day 88 since the most recent low, which, he said, leaves room for another decline in the months ahead. “We’re currently on day 88. So, who’s to know what’ll happen in 3 months,” he added.

Cowen acknowledged factors that could make his forecast wrong. He pointed out that year‑to‑date returns for Bitcoin have so far outperformed typical midterm years: the asset sits about 10% below its calendar‑year open, compared with a typical 30% to 35% decline at this stage in past cycles. He also noted Bitcoin has reclaimed the so‑called bull market support band, a structural level some traders view as bullish.

Cowen highlighted market participation as another variable. He said retail buying never returned to the extent seen in prior bull runs and that altcoins lost ground against Bitcoin during the recent rally. “Bitcoin topped on apathy rather than euphoria,” he said, framing weaker retail interest as a reason the current cycle might differ.

He addressed investors who sold near last year’s highs, saying those who took profits have so far avoided larger losses. “Anyone who took profits on Bitcoin in Q4 when everyone else was screaming 300K is still doing fine,” he said. He also warned about trade timing, noting that if his view proves correct the signals will appear obvious, while being wrong could leave traders reacting after prices move.

The 200‑day moving average is a commonly used medium‑term indicator for market health. Analysts often watch how price behaves around that average and how long cycles take between lows when assessing the likelihood of deeper pullbacks. Cowen’s forecast rests on those historical patterns and on current measures of market participation.