Brent Nears $115 After Trump Warning, IEA Flags Draws

Brent crude traded near $111 on Monday as markets weighed a possible break above $115 following a social media post from former President Donald Trump warning Iran that ‘the clock is ticking’ and a monthly update from the International Energy Agency reporting record global oil inventory draws.

The IEA said inventories are depleting at a record pace. Swiss bank UBS projects global stocks could fall to about 7.6 billion barrels by the end of May, a level market participants say would tighten supply.

On technical charts, Brent has been coiling inside a symmetrical triangle that began on March 19, tracing lower highs and higher lows and approaching the apex. The price is trading above an accumulation zone built between December 22, 2025 and February 26 that preceded a rally toward $120. The daily Relative Strength Index reads near 58; a move above 60 would add momentum confirmation to an upside break.

On the four-hour chart, Brent is moving in a horizontal channel with support near $94 and resistance around $115. After a late-February breakout, price retreated to the 0.618 Fibonacci level near $88 before reclaiming ground and clearing the 0.236 retracement at about $107.68. At roughly $111 it is attempting another run at the $115 band. A confirmed close above $115 would open a path to the prior high near $119.58 and could project an extension equal to the channel’s range. Failure at $115 could send the market back toward the 0.382 retracement at $100.32, with the $94 channel floor as deeper support.

Geopolitical developments are adding to market focus. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, Iranian forces continue to block the waterway, and U.S. actions include a blockade of certain Iranian ports. Market participants linked the social media post to higher risk premiums on oil.

In a weekend post, Trump wrote ‘the clock is ticking.’ The IEA update and UBS stockpile projection are being cited by market participants as evidence of rapid inventory depletion and tighter physical flows.