BlackRock: Big Tech AI Capex Is Driving Markets

BlackRock Investment Institute frames its first 2026 theme, “micro is macro,” around company-level AI capital spending. Strategists Jean Boivin and Wei Li write that investment by a handful of Big Tech firms has become the dominant driver of macro market conditions.

BlackRock says Big Tech capital expenditure is tracking roughly $725 billion this year, about 10% higher than estimates before first-quarter earnings. The note projects AI infrastructure investment could total $5 trillion to $8 trillion over the decade.

The firm writes that concentrated capex is influencing GDP growth, corporate profits and interest rates in ways traditionally shaped by monetary policy. The so-called Magnificent Seven reported about 57% quarterly earnings growth, and BlackRock identifies AI as the main driver of recent US equity gains.

BlackRock flags elevated core inflation and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as additional pressures on energy and price dynamics. The firm sees roughly three rate hikes priced into Europe while US rates appear on hold, and it remains overweight US and emerging-market equities. The note warns long-term Treasuries no longer provide the portfolio ballast they once did.

The report says capital that once flowed across a broad set of risk assets is being diverted to large-scale AI projects and energy-security investments. Bitcoin traded near $80,646, about 36% below its October 2025 record of $126,080, while Ether was around $2,260, more than 50% below its August 2025 peak.

BlackRock argues that traditional cross-asset diversification is less effective amid rising leverage, weaker traditional hedges and concentration in a few large firms. The firm recommends greater exposure to private markets and hedge funds to achieve portfolio diversification.

The note concludes that whether AI capex continues to sustain a growth premium or begins to crowd out other assets will shape risk markets into the second half of 2026.