Bitcoin slips below $63K as Fed dots outweigh oil relief

Bitcoin fell below $63,000 on June 18–19 after sharp intraday swings, trading between an intraday high of $64,731 and a low of $62,263 on June 18 and moving toward $62,450 the following day. The price drop came as oil prices eased and tankers resumed passage through the Strait of Hormuz under a US‑Iran memorandum of understanding, while US interest‑rate expectations shifted higher.

The Federal Open Market Committee left its policy rate target at 3.50%–3.75% on June 18 but released a dot plot showing that nine of 18 officials now expect at least one rate increase this year, up from none in March. The Fed’s median year‑end PCE inflation forecast rose to 3.6% from 2.7%. The committee reiterated that inflation remains above its 2% goal and that it “will deliver price stability.”

On the same day the United States and Iran signed a 60‑day memorandum of understanding that commits Tehran to ensuring safe commercial passage through the Strait of Hormuz and calls for a full end to the US naval blockade on Iranian ports within 30 days. Three Saudi‑flagged supertankers carrying about 6 million barrels of crude sailed through the Strait hours after the agreement was sent to Congress and resumed broadcasting their positions after weeks of concealing voyages. Brent crude settled near $79.85 and WTI at $76.60, near levels seen before the escalation on Feb. 28. The Strait handles roughly 20% of global oil flows.

Market participants noted that lower oil reduces a pressure point for inflation by easing the risk of an energy-driven inflation spike. In a typical sequence, cheaper energy can ease inflation expectations and put downward pressure on yields, a dynamic that normally supports long-duration risk assets. That effect was present but appeared smaller than the impact of the Fed’s updated forecasts on June 18.

The US dollar index rose to a one‑year high of 100.80 after the Fed’s statement. Fed funds futures priced roughly a 68% chance of a rate increase by September. A firmer dollar and higher expected rates are generally negative for dollar‑priced risk assets, including Bitcoin, according to market participants.

Shipping and insurance officials urged caution about the pace of normalization in the Strait. Lloyd’s Market Association warned that full normalization could take months, citing incomplete mine‑clearance operations and the conditional nature of the 60‑day MOU.

Analysts outlined three scenarios for Bitcoin’s path: if oil continues to fall and shipping normalizes faster than expected, lower inflation pressure could reduce hike odds and allow Bitcoin to recover toward $65,000–$68,000; if oil stays lower but the Fed’s hike odds remain elevated, Bitcoin is likely to trade in the low‑to‑mid $60,000s; and if the Fed tightens further or Hormuz relief unravels and oil spikes, Bitcoin could retreat toward the $60,000 area.

Market participants said that until inflation readings and Fed policy expectations move in a consistent direction, Bitcoin may react negatively even when geopolitical risks ease. The June 18–19 price action reflected simultaneous easing in oil and renewed pressure from a repriced Fed outlook.