Bitcoin Rally Hinges on Fed Response to Weak Jobs Report
June payrolls rose 57,000 vs. 110,000 expected and prior months were revised down 74,000. Bitcoin’s price now hinges on whether the Fed treats the print as a reason to cut rates.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000 in June, below the 110,000 economists had forecast. April payrolls were revised down by 31,000 and May by 43,000, a combined reduction of 74,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, average hourly earnings rose 3.5% year over year, and the labor force participation rate declined to 61.5%.
The Federal Reserve kept its target range at 3.50%–3.75% at the June 17 meeting. The June dot plot showed officials’ rate projections clustered around or above the current range, leaving policymakers scope to treat a single soft report as an outlier.
Traders quickly increased the probability of rate cuts after the payroll release. Bitcoin traded down toward about $57,000 before breaking through a $60,000–$61,000 resistance band and reaching an intraday high of $62,056. Matt Mena, senior crypto research strategist at 21Shares, identified the $60,000–$61,000 zone as reclaimed and flagged $65,000 as the next confirmation level, outlining a path to $75,000 by month-end and $100,000 by year-end if liquidity conditions ease and risk appetite returns.
Iggy Ioppe, chief investment officer at Theo, warned that the payroll miss could be misleading: “The payrolls miss reads as a growth wobble, and the knee-jerk is to price cuts back in. That’s the trap.” He argued a 4.2% unemployment rate gives the Fed cover to look through one weak print and pointed to elevated real Treasury yields and heavy positioning in risk assets.
Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at Sygnum Bank, said the weaker payrolls reduce immediate pressure for more hikes but cautioned that weaker data is not automatically bullish. He highlighted other factors affecting funding conditions, including Treasury cash balances, the final eSLR reform and stablecoin adoption. He also noted that U.S. equity markets are closed on July 3 and some market hours are shortened over the holiday while crypto trading continues, which can amplify price swings.
Market participants described two potential near-term paths. One path envisions an orderly slowdown that lowers rate expectations and allows Bitcoin to hold the $60,000–$61,000 band and test $65,000 or higher. The alternate path has the Fed treat the payroll report as noise, leaving yields and policy expectations unchanged and exposing Bitcoin to a return toward the recent $57,000 low. Short-term price action will depend on Fed communications, liquidity conditions and thin holiday trading.
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