Bitcoin Rally Hinges on Fed Minutes Wednesday
Bitcoin rose about 11% from a July 1 low after weak June jobs data trimmed rate-hike expectations. Fed minutes from the June 16–17 meeting are due Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET.
Bitcoin’s 11% rebound from a July 1 low to about $64,000 followed a weak June jobs report that reduced expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes. The Fed will publish minutes of its June 16–17 meeting on Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET; they are the first full minutes recorded under Chair Kevin Warsh.
The June jobs report showed payrolls rose by about 57,000, roughly half of economists’ estimates. The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised April and May payrolls down by a combined 74,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% as roughly 720,000 people left the labor force, pushing participation to 61.5%.
At their June meeting, Fed officials left the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, removed earlier language suggesting cuts could arrive soon, and shifted the median 2026 projection toward at least one additional hike. In public remarks, Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized persistent inflation and outlined conditions that could justify another increase.
Market pricing shifted after the jobs report. CME FedWatch data imply about a 76% chance the Fed holds rates at its July meeting, with roughly 40% odds of a hike by December. Traders had increased positions in risk assets on the view that a softer labor market could limit the duration of restrictive policy.
Bitcoin traded near $64,000 on Tuesday and posted intraday swings of more than $3,400 earlier in the week. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded roughly $223 million of inflows on Thursday, ending a 10-day withdrawal streak that removed $2.73 billion. Since early May the ETF products have seen net outflows of about $8.5 billion.
On-chain activity showed large transfers to exchanges approaching 49,000 BTC as the price climbed back above $60,000. Options positioning placed dealer gamma concentrated near $60,000 and $62,000.
Some market participants identify about $62,000 as a key level to hold after the minutes and point to Monday’s high near $64,700 as a reference for further gains. A return toward the $58,000 area would revisit the recent low reached on July 1.
The Fed minutes will provide a verbatim account of officials’ internal deliberations from mid-June and will be released at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday.
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