Bitcoin Rallies Most on U.S. Federal Holidays, New Year’s Leads

A CoinGecko study covering May 2013 through May 2026 found Bitcoin produced its largest single-day returns on U.S. federal holidays. The research analyzed 4,753 daily price observations and identified New Year’s Day as the top-performing holiday, with an average next-day return of 2.01% and an 84.6% win rate.

Across all federal holidays, the average next-day return was 0.77%, compared with a 0.19% average on non-holiday trading days. Columbus Day matched New Year’s Day on win rate at 84.6% and had a 1.70% average next-day gain. Christmas Day averaged a 1.46% next-day gain with a 53.8% win rate, and Labor Day averaged 1.22% with a 69.2% win rate.

Two holidays showed negative average next-day returns. Martin Luther King Jr. Day averaged -0.84%, a result heavily influenced by an 18.65% Bitcoin drop on January 15, 2018. Independence Day averaged -0.26%. Both holidays had win rates below 50%.

The study also examined weekday patterns. Monday and Wednesday tied for the highest average next-day returns at 0.38% each, while Thursday was the only weekday with a negative average return, at -0.09%. The difference between weekday and weekend performance was 0.01%. Over a full 365-day horizon, average returns by weekday ranged from 142.15% to 144.56%.

CoinGecko researchers linked the New Year’s Day pattern to fresh capital flows into markets in January and reversals of December tax-loss selling. The holiday effect persisted across a wide range of Bitcoin prices, from about $313 in 2015 to $93,507 in 2025. The study noted the timing effect may add marginal value at short horizons and that whether the pattern repeats in future years remains uncertain.