Bitcoin may need trillions in new capital for next rally

CryptoQuant chief executive Ki Young Ju wrote that Bitcoin may need trillions of dollars in new capital to trigger another parabolic rally, arguing the market has grown too large for the same buying patterns that moved early cycles. Bitcoin trades near $63,000 after a roughly 50% decline from its October peak above $126,000. Data show US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products recorded about $10 billion in net outflows since early May and an eight-week streak of withdrawals.

Ju compared realized capitalization across past bull cycles to measure how much capital the network absorbed and how prices responded. Realized capitalization values coins at the price they last moved on-chain and is used as a proxy for capital in the market. In 2011, about $2.7 billion in net inflows matched a roughly 55,000% price increase. In the current cycle, roughly $697 billion of new capital corresponded to about a 689% gain. Ju calculated that a $5 million inflow could double the price in 2011, while a doubling in the current cycle required around $101 billion.

Ju wrote, “Bitcoin needs to be a core macro asset,” and he added that relying on a retail-led ETF trade alone will not be sufficient to produce another parabolic advance.

Flows into the 12 US spot Bitcoin ETFs have trended negative since May, according to exchange flow data. An analysis platform described the pattern since May as “remarkably one-sided,” noting repeated attempts to rebuild buying momentum stalled and the longest run of outflows since the ETFs launched.

A January 2026 survey of 351 institutional decision-makers by Coinbase and EY-Parthenon found that nearly three-quarters planned to increase crypto allocations and 74% expected prices to rise over the next 12 months. The survey also showed 49% of respondents were placing greater emphasis on risk management, liquidity and position sizing. Two-thirds reported existing exposure through spot ETFs or exchange-traded products, and 81% preferred spot exposure via a registered vehicle.

Survey responses indicate institutions prioritize regulated products, custody standards and governance before making larger allocations. Institutional allocations typically require liquidity, compliance approvals and defined risk controls, which affect the timing and scale of any new purchases.

Michael Saylor, executive chairman of Strategy, described the next phase of adoption as driven by capital flows across financial markets rather than miner issuance, listing ETF flows, corporate treasury flows, sovereign reserve flows, bank credit, derivatives and structured finance. He wrote, “The halving tightens supply. Capital flows set the growth trajectory.”

Halvings reduce new issuance and can tighten available supply. Ju wrote that because Bitcoin now trades at a scale exceeding $1 trillion, significant price moves will depend on whether large balance sheets treat Bitcoin as a regular allocation. He outlined potential demand sources that could provide durable buying, including advisers adding Bitcoin to model portfolios, corporate treasuries, banks offering credit, insurers and asset managers allocating as a macro position, and sovereign reserve buys.

Investors have also directed large amounts of capital to artificial-intelligence-linked equities and infrastructure this year, which competes for institutional allocations. Ju framed his analysis as a test of whether such diversified, large-scale capital will enter Bitcoin in sufficient size and steadiness to drive another parabolic price advance.