Bitcoin indicator flips green after 26 months ahead of CPI

CryptoQuant’s Bull‑Bear Market Cycle Indicator moved into positive territory for the first time in about 26 months as April 2026 U.S. Consumer Price Index data was released Tuesday. At the same time Bitcoin traded near $80,655, down about 0.6% on the day and up roughly 13% over the prior 30 days.

The indicator’s prior green readings in 2019 and early 2023 preceded extended recoveries following deep drawdowns. CryptoQuant’s 30‑day moving average of the indicator shows rising momentum. Bitcoin has reclaimed the $78,000 range, a price area aligned with the True Market Mean and the cost basis of short‑term holders.

On‑chain analyst CheckOnchain wrote that sustained trading above $78,000 has coincided with stronger market structure and improved sentiment in past episodes. Traders are monitoring whether price moves above $82,000 and whether Bitcoin remains above the True Market Mean for clearer technical confirmation.

CryptoQuant analyst Moreno cautioned that other metrics point to exhaustion and framed the current green reading as less clean than a classic early‑cycle confirmation. Moreno wrote, “In my view, the probabilities slightly lean toward this being a potential local top rather than the beginning of a new bull market, unless price follows through strongly and confirms the move.”

Alphractal analyst Joao Wedson flagged a shift in exchange flows: the 30‑day change in exchange reserves flipped from negative to positive, indicating more Bitcoin has moved onto exchanges than off them. Wedson linked similar shifts in past cycles with weaker price outcomes and said the pattern contrasts with the accumulation behavior expected at a cycle low.

The U.S. April CPI release arrived ahead of the Wall Street open. Economists’ consensus estimates put headline CPI at about 0.7% month‑over‑month and 3.7% year‑over‑year, up from March’s 3.3% annual rate. Market participants are watching how the inflation print interacts with existing technical and on‑chain signals.

Traders entering the session were weighing the indicator’s green reading, the recent reclaim of the $78,000 region and the exchange flow data. Price action around $82,000 and whether Bitcoin holds above the True Market Mean after the CPI release were identified by market participants as key levels to watch for the next trading moves.