Bitcoin floor in doubt as $65K support, $79K target clash

Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode released a joint Q2 2026 Charting Crypto report showing bitcoin market sentiment moved from Fear into Optimism as April closed. The firms combined Coinbase survey responses with on-chain indicators to assess investor positioning and short-term supply trends.

Coinbase survey data show roughly 75% of institutional respondents and 71% of non-institutional respondents describe bitcoin as undervalued. Glassnode on-chain metrics indicate bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit and Loss reading left the Fear band and entered Optimism. Ether registered similar changes: short-term supply held under three months fell about 38% in Q1 while supply held longer than a year rose roughly 1%.

The report finds on-chain flows consistent with fewer short-term traders and increased accumulation by longer-term holders. The firms caution that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and potential policy moves by major central banks remain risks that could alter market conditions.

Analysts are divided on whether recent price action represents a lasting bottom. On-chain analyst Willy Woo estimated an investor cost basis near $79,000 and assigned about a 30% probability that bitcoin will clear that level on the current attempt. He added that sustaining levels above $65,000 would change the attempt into a more structural recovery. “BTC is currently attempting a bottom, but all the pieces are not yet in place, the next 3-6 weeks will be telling,” he wrote.

Trader and educator Ivan Liljeqvist, known online as Ivan on Tech, noted that bitcoin has not broken a bull market support band, has not printed a higher high, and has not produced a decisive bullish candle. He also pointed to historical seasonal weakness in May during past bear cycles, citing declines near 19% in 2018 and 16% in 2022, and urged caution. “Bitcoin dumps hard each May in bear markets…do not be complacent here,” he warned.

A DeFi researcher emphasized the month’s volatility and recommended precise risk management rather than high leverage, observing that “May rewards snipers, not maxed-out degens.” Historical monthly returns show wide variation: some Mays produced large gains, such as roughly 50% increases in 2017 and 2019, while others recorded sharp drops, including about a 35% fall in 2021.

Coinbase said the next three to six weeks will be important for determining whether the current setup holds. Market participants will monitor whether price action can maintain the $65,000 support level and whether it can move above the approximate $79,000 investor cost basis. The report explains that Net Unrealized Profit and Loss measures unrealized gains minus unrealized losses across holders and is used to gauge aggregate profit and loss expectations among investors.