Bitcoin bottom depends on long-term holder losses

Glassnode reports long-term Bitcoin holders are realizing roughly $280 million in losses per day as the token trades near $64,400, below the short-term holder breakeven of $72,200 and the True Market Mean of $76,600.

Bitcoin rose from a one-week low of $58,300 to $64,400 before easing back toward $62,700. Those gains did not push the price above the cycle benchmarks Glassnode tracks: the short-term holder cost basis and the True Market Mean.

Glassnode defines long-term holders as addresses that acquired Bitcoin more than 155 days ago. The pace of those holders selling at a loss rose from about $15 million per day in early February to a recent peak near $280 million per day. Long-term holder losses now account for about 43% of total realized value on the network.

On-chain analysis notes the market would need a marked drop in long-term holder losses to a range of $100 million to $150 million per day for a constructive path in Glassnode’s framework.

Institutional flows remain weak. Spot Bitcoin ETF net flows improved from a low near negative $193 million per day in early June to a 30-day average near negative $88.9 million per day. ETF trading volume has run between about $650 million and $950 million per day on a 30-day average, compared with an October 2025 peak near $4.4 billion per day. Glassnode estimates returning to that peak would require roughly $3.45 billion to $3.75 billion per day in additional ETF turnover.

Derivatives data are mixed. The options market open-interest put/call ratio fell to 0.56, the lowest reading for 2026, while perpetual futures funding rates remain below the 0.01% level Glassnode uses as neutral. The 25-delta skew stays bid across maturities, indicating traders are paying more for put options than calls.

Federal Reserve minutes from the June meeting show participants supported holding the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75% and removed prior language that had signaled a bias toward easing. The minutes list upside inflation risks including tariffs, supply disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz, stronger commodity prices and demand linked to artificial intelligence. Most participants outlined a scenario in which inflation pressures ease enough to hold rates steady or allow cuts; they also discussed a scenario in which persistent inflation would require further policy firming.

Glassnode outlines two possible scenarios. In the first, long-term holder losses compress to $100 million–$150 million per day, ETF flows move to neutral or positive, ETF volume rises above $1 billion per day, and incoming inflation data reduce the case for policy tightening; in that scenario Bitcoin would first reclaim the short-term holder cost basis and then test the True Market Mean. In the second, long-term holder losses remain near or above $250 million per day, ETF net flows stay negative, and Fed rhetoric keeps policy-firming risk on the table; in that scenario Bitcoin could retest the lower end of its bear-market range near its realized price.

Using absolute values, Glassnode places long-term holder losses near $280 million per day and ETF net outflows near $88.9 million per day, a combined daily stress of about $369 million on the market.