Benjamin Cowen: Bitcoin cycle intact, bottom expected Oct 2026

Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into the Cryptoverse, says Bitcoin’s historical four-year market cycle remains intact and that the next cyclical low will come in October 2026. He laid out his view in a recent video.

Cowen based the timing claim on the interval between cycle lows and highs. He noted the most recent peak occurred on day 1,162 from the prior low, close to earlier cycle peaks that fell on days 1,059 and 1,168. He described the recent top as arriving within a week of the historical timing window.

On price, Bitcoin changed hands near $75,650, roughly 40% below its October 6 record high of $126,080. Cowen identified a counter-trend rally that has run about 16 weeks, smaller than the 46% bounce off the 2022 low and inside the 15-to-25-week range seen in prior midterm-year recoveries.

Some market participants have suggested the latest top displayed apathy rather than the blow-off euphoria of past cycles, and others say structural demand from spot ETFs and corporate treasury allocation could alter long-term patterns. Cowen rejected those views and emphasized timing over narrative shifts. “Bitcoin topped within one week of when it historically tops, despite the narratives for calling the four-year cycle dead,” he said.

He also pointed to historical stock market behavior to illustrate that muted highs can be followed by significant declines. Cowen referenced S&P 500 data from 1962 to 1982 to show that index peaks without dramatic spikes were still followed by bear markets.

Cowen outlined an invalidation scenario and placed the onus on analysts who contend the cycle has ended. “To pretend like it’s different this time because of some narrative on Wall Street would be the same mistake that people fell for last cycle and the cycle before that,” he said.

He added that, even if markets soften rather than plunge, he expects Bitcoin to revisit about $60,000 later this year and that any sustained bull-market recovery would need to test that level. His base case remains a cyclical low in October 2026, a timing that matches midterm-year bottoms in 2014, 2018 and 2022 and aligns with other analysts who have highlighted a similar bottoming window.

The four-year cycle is commonly linked to scheduled supply reductions and recurring investor behavior. Debate continues over whether recent institutional flows and the growth of spot exchange-traded funds change those structural drivers, but Cowen’s analysis centers on timing and pattern consistency rather than changes in market participants.