Artemis Model Projects Coinbase at $300B by 2031

Jon Ma, CEO of Artemis, published an open-source financial model on Thursday projecting that Coinbase could reach a $300 billion market capitalization by 2031 if stablecoin supply expands, agentic commerce develops and the exchange shifts more revenue to subscription and services.

The model’s bull case assumes roughly $23 billion in revenue and about $10 billion in net income for Coinbase by 2031. Applying a 30-times price-to-earnings multiple produces the $300 billion valuation, about six times the company’s market value at the time of the model’s release.

Ma’s spreadsheet assumes total stablecoin supply reaches $3 trillion by 2031 and that USD Coin, or USDC, captures 30% of that market. The model credits Coinbase’s distribution role through its partnership with Circle for USDC’s share.

The model projects agentic commerce — economic activity routed and executed by autonomous software agents — will amount to $7.5 trillion in annual spending by 2031. Coinbase is assumed to capture one basis point, or 0.01%, of that flow.

Artemis models a shift in Coinbase’s revenue mix from about 40% subscription and services today to roughly 65% by 2031, reducing dependence on trading volumes and increasing recurring fees.

The spreadsheet was published publicly on X and is open-source, enabling others to review and change assumptions. It also includes a bear case that values Coinbase near $70 billion.

The model’s release coincided with company changes: last week CEO Brian Armstrong cut roughly 14% of staff and reorganized the company, flattening management layers and creating AI-native teams described internally as pods to manage fleets of autonomous agents.

Coinbase has encouraged engineers to increase the share of AI-generated code to more than half of daily output and has launched experimental products including Agentic Wallets intended to handle machine-to-machine payments.

The exchange co-stewards the x402 protocol with Cloudflare under the Linux Foundation, a detail the model uses when projecting Coinbase’s role in agent-driven settlement.

On X, Ma summarized the bull scenario: “In our bull case, Coinbase does ~$23B revenue in 2031 with ~$10B of net income. At 30x PE that assumes ~$300B of marketcap (6x+ from today).”

The model lists stablecoin policy, the pace of agentic commerce adoption and USDC’s ability to retain distribution share against new entrants as the principal uncertainties affecting whether the higher valuation would be realized.