Armstrong Sees Bitcoin Bottom Near $60,000; On‑Chain Data Diverges

Coinbase Chief Executive Brian Armstrong posted on social media that he believes Bitcoin has probably bottomed near $60,000 and that he remains long. The comment followed a decline of roughly 50% from October’s record high and a June pullback to about $59,291. Bitcoin traded around $65,000 after the June dip.

A macro bottom dashboard that combines three inputs — macro dislocation, correlation with equities and a capitulation gauge — indicates value but not a confirmed bottom. The macro dislocation input sits near the top of its historical range, reflecting a gap between Bitcoin’s price and a basket of the stock market and the U.S. dollar. Correlation with that basket is about 0.79, showing a strong positive link. The capitulation gauge reads zero because price remains above its long-term trend. The dashboard’s overall score is near the midpoint of its scale.

A sentiment index that tracks bearish commentary reached about 1,908 on Feb. 5, a one-year high that coincided with an earlier local low. During the deeper June price drop the same index measured near 88. The two readings show a much larger peak in negative sentiment in February than in June.

Long-term holder profit and loss data also differ across cycles. The long-term holder net unrealized profit/loss metric bottomed near +0.19 in early June and is around +0.22 now, indicating those holders are, on aggregate, still in unrealized profit. By contrast, the same metric fell to about -0.24 at the November 2022 low. Realized-loss tallies show roughly 187,000 BTC sold at a loss over the last 30 days, below the roughly 400,000 BTC sold at a loss in February and the roughly 1.2 million BTC that moved into losses after the FTX collapse. A realized-price measure places a deeper value zone near $53,600.

Under the macro dashboard, a capitulation reading requires price to fall below its long-term trend and a marked increase in selling that pushes the capitulation input above zero. The model’s three inputs currently point to cheapness and high correlation but not to the panic-driven washout that produces a capitulation signal.

Armstrong’s social post included the phrases “as bullish as ever” and “still long.” Market participants and models continue to monitor the June low near $59,291 and the realized-price zone near $53,600 as reference points for further downside or a potential capitulation event.