XRP’s $1 Rally Collides With Holders Still Above $2

XRP changed hands near $1.08 on July 14. Glassnode reported that holders who acquired XRP six to 12 months ago have an average cost basis of about $2.22, well above the current price. Glassnode’s aggregate realized price for the circulating supply was about $1.36 and its net unrealized profit/loss metric (NUPL) stood near -0.252, indicating unrealized losses exceed unrealized gains across the tracked supply.

Glassnode data show coins moved on-chain in the past month carry a realized price near $1.09–$1.11. The platform’s cohort tracking places recent holder cost bases from roughly $1.09 up to $2.22, with the six-to-12-month group the most underwater relative to spot.

Perpetual futures funding rates on July 12 spanned a 2.6-basis-point range, according to CoinGlass. Funding ran negative on Kraken (-0.016%), Coinbase (-0.003%), Bybit (-0.002%) and Crypto.com (-0.002%); near zero on Binance; and positive on Gate (+0.005%), Hyperliquid (+0.006%), Bitget (+0.010%) and Huobi (+0.010%). CoinGlass noted funding varies by venue because of differences in user mix, margin use, contract volume and mark-price methods.

Derivatives accounted for most XRP turnover. CoinGlass reported 24-hour XRP futures volume above $1.7 billion and spot volume near $290.4 million, a futures-to-spot ratio of about 5.9 to 1. Open interest was around $2.3 billion, down from June, indicating leveraged positions remain a key driver of intraday price moves.

Price thresholds map to specific holder outcomes. A sustained rise above about $1.11 would move the most recent buyers into profit. A rally toward the $1.36 aggregate realized price would reduce losses for a broader set of holders. Restoring the six-to-12-month cohort to breakeven would require prices near $2.22. A clear drop below $1 would push newer buyers into losses and would test positions on exchanges where traders are already paying to remain long.

Market conditions include a Federal Reserve hold on rates at a 3.50%–3.75% target range on June 17. Renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran on July 13 pushed Brent crude higher and supported the dollar, while money markets still price some additional tightening this year. US-traded spot XRP ETFs logged about $7.2 million in net outflows in the July 6–10 week, driven by a $7.29 million withdrawal from one fund.

Glassnode cautioned that its realized price measure reflects when coins last moved on-chain, so transfers and custody changes can affect cohort cost bases. CoinGlass recommended using funding data alongside open interest, volatility and liquidation figures to form a fuller picture of market positioning.